The Resource What Are the Odds? Option-Based Forecasts of FOMC Target Changes

What Are the Odds? Option-Based Forecasts of FOMC Target Changes

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What Are the Odds? Option-Based Forecasts of FOMC Target Changes
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What Are the Odds? Option-Based Forecasts of FOMC Target Changes
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Summary
This article uses the probability forecasts derived from options to assess evolving market uncertainty about Federal Reserve monetary policy actions in a variety of recent events and episodes. Options on federal funds futures contracts reveal a complete probability density function over possible Federal Reserve target rates, thus augmenting the expectations provided by federal funds futures contracts. Option-based forecasts are most useful when more than two federal funds target outcomes are plausible at an upcoming policy meeting
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
  • Emmons, William R
  • Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
  • Lakdawala, Aeimit K.
  • Neely, Christopher J.
Label
What Are the Odds? Option-Based Forecasts of FOMC Target Changes
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1332
Control code
ICPSR01332.v1
Governing access note
Access restricted to subscribing institutions
Label
What Are the Odds? Option-Based Forecasts of FOMC Target Changes
Publication
Note
1332
Control code
ICPSR01332.v1
Governing access note
Access restricted to subscribing institutions

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